Republicans Fear Their Chances of Holding Congress Are Fading. Inside Trump’s Campaign Plan to Reverse the Trend

 Republicans Fear Their Chances of Holding Congress Are Fading. Inside Trump’s Campaign Plan to Reverse the Trend

President Donald Trump arrives to deliver remarks at Wheeler High School in Marietta, Georgia, on July 22.Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

President Donald Trump has approved plans to direct millions of dollars from his personal political action committee toward supporting vulnerable Republican candidates ahead of the November elections, according to people familiar with the discussions. The move comes as some senior campaign advisers privately express concern that Republicans may struggle to retain control of both the House and Senate.

Trump’s political team is still working out the exact amount of money to be distributed. One person familiar with the discussions said the initial funding could reach roughly $30 million, although another official cautioned that the final figure has not been settled.

The first round of funding is expected to begin flowing in the coming weeks, marking what campaign officials describe as an early step in a broader effort to strengthen Republican candidates with the November elections only a few months away.

The spending plan comes as Republicans face growing concerns about several political challenges, including the ongoing conflict with Iran and elevated gasoline prices, which some strategists fear could weaken voter enthusiasm and turnout.

“There is a path where we keep the House and the Senate,” one source said, while acknowledging that the current outlook does not yet justify strong optimism.

Trump is also preparing to become more active on the campaign trail. According to one adviser, the president is expected to travel at least once a week for rallies and other events in competitive congressional districts.

Republican officials have argued for months that a more aggressive Trump campaign schedule could help energize his core MAGA supporters, a voting bloc considered important to the party’s prospects in the midterm elections.

One adviser described Trump’s attitude toward travel as complicated, saying that while he enjoys campaigning, he also dislikes the demands of frequent travel. Earlier plans for a heavier campaign schedule were disrupted by domestic priorities and the conflict involving Iran.

In recent conversations with senior aides, Trump has reportedly expressed a stronger desire to campaign on behalf of Republican candidates. However, some advisers remain cautious, noting that his level of enthusiasm for an intensive campaign schedule could change quickly.

President Donald Trump greets the audience before delivering remarks at General Motors’ Milford Proving Grounds in Milford, Michigan, on July 27, 2026.Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

“We’ll see how long that lasts,” the adviser said, adding that Trump can quickly become frustrated with frequent travel and begin wondering why he is on the road instead of focusing on other priorities.

Despite the planned increase in campaigning, concern remains widespread within the Republican Party that Trump may have waited too long to become more directly involved in the midterm effort. For months, lawmakers and Republican operatives have privately worried about the president’s limited commitment to using his political resources to support candidates across the country.

Republicans are facing competitive races in numerous House districts as well as several key Senate contests. The party is also dealing with voter concerns over higher prices and widespread dissatisfaction surrounding the war in Iran, with neither issue showing a clear resolution.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales defended Trump’s role as the party’s leader, saying the president remains committed to protecting Republican control of Congress.

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader of the Republican Party who is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress,” Wales said in a statement. She pointed to what she described as the administration’s accomplishments, including stronger border security, major middle-class tax reductions, and historically low murder rates.

Wales added that Trump would continue highlighting his administration’s agenda while drawing a contrast with congressional Democrats.

Focusing on the Republican Base

A Trump adviser acknowledged that the president’s declining approval numbers make it unlikely that he can attract large numbers of independent and undecided voters. Those voters had been an important part of Trump’s coalition during the 2024 presidential election, particularly in closely contested states.

As a result, Republican strategists increasingly believe their midterm prospects will depend on turning out Trump’s most loyal supporters, including millions of MAGA voters who typically participate at lower rates during nonpresidential elections.

The adviser said Republicans must find a way to motivate voters who regularly support Trump during presidential contests to also participate in congressional elections.

However, Republicans have struggled in recent months to provide their base with issues capable of generating the same level of enthusiasm. Congressional Republicans spent much of the final period before the August recess divided over legislation, including Trump’s controversial election proposal.

The bill sought to establish nationwide federal voter-identification requirements and introduce additional voting restrictions. However, the legislation faced significant obstacles, had little chance of becoming law, and never reached the Senate floor.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune looks on as Trump speaks to reporters while arriving at the U.S. Capitol for a closed-door luncheon with the Republican Senate Steering Committee to promote his SAVE America Act on June 24 in Washington, D.C.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Republican congressional leaders have long believed that their midterm prospects will depend heavily on whether Trump can rebuild the broad coalition that helped him win in 2024. They are counting on him to bring out as many MAGA supporters as possible in key battleground states, particularly Michigan, Ohio, and North Carolina, where closely contested House and Senate races could determine which party controls Congress next January.

Republicans are also defending several important seats in traditionally Democratic states, including a closely watched Senate race in Maine and multiple House contests in New York and California. Still, most of the competitive races this fall are in states where Trump has already demonstrated strong electoral support, including Iowa and Pennsylvania.

According to House and Senate campaign officials, Republican leaders have encouraged candidates from the beginning to embrace their connection with Trump rather than distance themselves from him while campaigning. That strategy also extends to more moderate Republicans, including Rep. Mike Lawler, who holds a vulnerable seat in New York’s Hudson Valley and hosted Trump at a joint rally earlier this year in a heavily Republican part of his district.

Republican lawmakers also want Trump to remain focused on a consistent message, draw large crowds, and use his campaign presence to highlight the party’s claims on affordability and other domestic issues.

However, Trump has struggled to gain significant traction in promoting his domestic record. His administration has also yet to bring an end to the foreign conflict that he had repeatedly predicted would be resolved within only a few weeks. 

A U.S. Army carry team transports the remains of 1st Lt. Tyler James Feehan of Ewa Beach, Hawaii, one of four U.S. soldiers recently killed in the war with Iran, at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Wednesday, July 22.
Matt Rourke/AP

In private discussions with President Donald Trump, some advisers have highlighted the growing political impact of the ongoing war with Iran, warning that it could hurt Republican candidates even among voters who broadly support the administration’s objectives in the region.

According to people familiar with the internal conversations, many voters appear increasingly uncomfortable with a prolonged conflict, particularly as the war contributes to higher costs at home.

Gasoline prices have emerged as a particularly difficult political issue for Trump. People familiar with the discussions said persistently elevated fuel costs have weakened his standing and provided a highly visible reminder of broader affordability concerns that many Americans believe have intensified during the administration.

“It’s higher prices; that’s what they’re upset about,” one adviser said.

Those concerns appeared to influence the administration’s messaging this week. Vice President JD Vance and outgoing White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt both placed greater emphasis on keeping gasoline prices affordable, presenting it as a priority that ranks alongside preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

The message represents a notable adjustment from Trump’s repeated statements that stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions remains the central objective of the conflict.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday, Leavitt said the administration considers both priorities important, arguing that Trump wants to protect consumers from higher fuel costs while ensuring Iran is never able to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Vehicles line up to refuel at a Costco gas station in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Wednesday, July 1.
Allison Joyce/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Trump has continued to say publicly that he is prepared to keep the war going for as long as necessary to achieve victory. At the same time, he has downplayed concerns about the conflict’s impact inside the United States while facing questions about how his administration can accomplish its broader objectives in the Middle East.

Trump’s Level of Enthusiasm

As the political situation becomes more difficult, Trump has recently suggested that the upcoming midterm elections are not entirely his responsibility. Along with dismissing some concerns about the economy and declining to make ending the Iran conflict his top priority, he has also continued to focus on issues and projects that are particularly important to him.

“I don’t have to be supporting all the people. You know, I have a busy schedule,” Trump said in a recent interview with Punchbowl News. He also remarked that he had already won and was not campaigning.

People close to the president say he nevertheless remains strongly interested in helping Republicans win as many races as possible in November. However, one adviser said Trump is unlikely to devote significant effort to candidates he believes have little chance of winning.

“He doesn’t want to carry dead carcasses across the finish line,” the adviser said, describing Trump’s cautious approach to endorsements. The president, the adviser added, does not want to support a candidate who could lose and potentially damage his political reputation.

Trump also understands the consequences of Democrats taking control of either chamber of Congress, according to people familiar with his thinking. A Democratic takeover of the House or Senate could make the final two years of his presidency considerably more difficult.

One source said Trump is well aware that losing both chambers would create serious problems. Other officials have said the president wants to avoid a repeat of the investigations and congressional confrontations that dominated parts of his first term, including two impeachment proceedings.

Inside Trump’s Midterm Operation

Trump’s political operation is being managed by a relatively small group of advisers who have worked closely with him during the 2024 presidential campaign and earlier election efforts.

The operation is led by James Blair, a longtime Trump political strategist who until recently served as the White House deputy chief of staff overseeing legislative, political, and public affairs.

The broader team includes Chris LaCivita, who served as a co-campaign manager during Trump’s 2024 reelection effort; Taylor Budowich, the former head of MAGA Inc. who later worked in White House communications; Timothy Saler, who previously oversaw Trump’s 2024 data operation; and longtime Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio.

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who worked closely with LaCivita and other senior campaign officials during the 2024 general election, remains deeply involved in planning and strategy ahead of November, according to officials.

The operation experienced a notable change this week when White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that she would leave her position at the end of August, roughly two months before the midterm elections. Leavitt has been regarded within the White House as one of Trump’s strongest public messengers on political issues. As of Saturday, officials had not said when a permanent replacement would be named.

Members of Trump’s political team say their current strategy follows many of the same principles that helped the campaign succeed in 2024.

A major component of that approach is the campaign’s data operation. According to officials, Trump’s team intends to rely heavily on the extensive voter data collected over recent years to identify, reach, and motivate members of the president’s political base.

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles sits inside the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., in April.Nathan Howard/Reuters

“We know exactly who our voters are,” one of Trump’s political operatives said. “Our data operation tells us how to reach them and what will motivate them to actually turn out on Election Day.”

Trump’s advisers also point to several recent developments they believe could improve Republicans’ position heading into November. Among them is an unusually aggressive effort to redraw congressional districts in several states, a process that has shifted some seats toward Republicans and reduced the number of genuinely competitive races.

The redistricting campaign, which was strongly encouraged by Trump, is viewed by Republican strategists as one of the main reasons the party believes it can still defend its House majority.

Republicans also welcomed a recent Supreme Court decision that removed limits on how much official party campaign committees can spend in support of individual candidates. GOP operatives argue the ruling could improve their financial advantage, particularly because Republican PACs and outside political groups currently hold considerably more resources than their Democratic counterparts.

“Our money’s going to go so much further,” one Republican campaign official said after the ruling. The official cautioned against predicting a sweeping Republican victory but argued that the party is entering the election season from a particularly strong position.

Rather than claiming they are certain to win a large number of seats, Republican officials say they believe the combination of favorable district maps, financial resources, and a strong voter-data operation gives them one of their best opportunities to maintain control of Congress.